WP1 - Cross-hazard risk-indicators based on historical data and ISIMIP impact projections

WP1 provides historical data and future projections of key hazard risk indicators for all project-relevant climate hazards in close collaboration with ISIMIP, using additional input from the Half a degree Additional warming (HAPPI) project and the ifo GAME database. Hazard risk indicators are developed for river floods, tropical cyclones, extreme heat, droughts, and crop yields on a global raster. As many countries face multi-hazard and compound risks, a consistent portfolio of risk indicators is required for a comprehensive quantification of socio-economic impacts. Most importantly, the risk indicators are based on and developed in close collaboration with the ISIMIP project that currently provides the most comprehensive archive of cross-sectoral projections of climate impacts for a large ensemble of different impact models consistently forced by a common ensemble of RCP and SSP scenarios from pre-industrial times until 2100/2300. Furthermore, socio-economic changes as e.g. prescribed by the historical development or by SSP scenarios are explicitly accounted for in the impact projections. For the historical period, predictors of risk are identified from observational records or validated using ISIMIP simulations driven by historical weather observations. For future projections of predictors, ISIMIP simulations are calibrated to observations and for each hazard an ensemble of impact models is used for a stringent uncertainty assessment. The work in WP1 is conducted and coordinated by PIK in close collaboration with colleagues from the ISIMIP project and its related BMBF-funded ISIPEDIA and HAPPI-DE projects.