Short- and Long-Term Impacts of Climate Extremes (SLICE)

In the SLICE project, we aim to gain a deep understanding of the channels through which climate extremes such as fluvial floods, tropical cyclones and droughts impact socioeconomic development in the short- and long-term. Socioeconomic impacts are assessed on the household as well as on the macroeconomic level in the present climate as well as for different climate and socioeconomic futures. This allows us to estimate climate impacts that may be avoided by stringent emission reductions. These analyses aim at identifying high-risk countries with high adaptive pressures and vulnerable groups within countries in order to support decision-makers in implementing the Paris Agreement.

Project status

The development of the empirical and dynamical models is largely completed. These models have already been employed to assess the short- and long-term impacts of historical tropical cyclones, fluvial floods, and droughts in focus countries on the households level as well as globally on the macroeconomic level. These studies are currently finalized or have already been submitted to renowned peer-reviewed journals and form the basis for the ongoing analysis of the socioeconomic impacts of these climate extremes for different climate change futures. 

Key results

On the household level, we are conducting empirical analyses on socioeconomic impacts of climate extremes for Malawi (droughts), Nigeria (floods) and the Philippines (tropical cyclones). We find that i) more frequent moderate droughts can negatively impact child health in agricultural households in Malawi, ii) education has the potential to increase the resilience of households against flood extremes in Nigeria and iii) intense winds and precipitation from tropical cyclones affect household expenditures in the Philippines. The main climate risks and implications for these countries have been summarized in stakeholder-friendly climate risk profiles.
On the macroeconomic level, we find that fluvial floods and tropical cyclones can deteriorate economic growth in the affected countries for more than a decade. However, growth losses can be efficiently mitigated by policy measures fostering household consumption and government expenditure in the disaster aftermath and disaster insurance. 

Project partners

The SLICE consortium is a joint project of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Potsdam), Climate Analytics (Berlin), and the Ifo Institute for Economic Research (Munich). It is coordinated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Dialogue on the Economics of Climate Change

SLICE is among the projects sponsored by the BMBF funding measure Economics of Climate Change II that aims to provide solution-oriented knowledge in the field of climate economics. To support transfer of knowledge and to intensify the exchange between scientists and practitioners, the funding measure is supported by the Dialogue on the Economics of Climate Change.