WP2 - Efficient cross-hazard damage projection and quantification of flood-adaptation strategies

WP2 uses the global, probabilistic, and spatially-explicit model CLIMADA to translate the biophysical impacts from WP1 into direct damages. CLIMADA is an open-source tool built according to the modeling strategies of (re-)insurance companies engaged in natural hazards and therefore provides validated state-of-the-art output as required in political or economical decision making to a wide circle of stakeholders. In WP2, we improve the existing model architecture alongside with the ETH partners. We set-up the full modeling cascade from climate impact indicators (WP1) to direct economic impacts and publish it as open-source software. CLIMADA is first extended to account for river floods. Then, it is employed to project hazard-specific and spatially-explicit damages for global river floods and tropical cyclones impacts. Our simulations account for future changes in hazard and SLICE exposure (from WP1) and provide direct input to WP5 and WP6. Further, the potential of various physical adaptation strategies to prevent economic impacts from river floods is assessed for representative case study regions in high- and in low-income countries. The representative case study regions are chosen and the adaptation options are assessed using existing stakeholder links and expertise from previous studies. Combining the spatially-explicit CLIMADA model with the spatially-explicit risk indicators developed in WP1 enables us to overcome several limitations of current modeling approaches. For instance, flood protection measures (e.g. dikes) can be explicitly modelled by reducing flood return periods for vulnerable grid points, e.g. cities, and are not described merely by tuning a parameter in a simple damage function.